Lessons from Iraq and Chilcot

The UK’s Chilcot Report into the 2003 invasion of Iraq, has some essential lessons for all Ministries of Defence to take on board when it comes to ensuring troops have the equipment and support they need, before the next major military operation starts

Anglo-French defence cooperation in the age of austerity

This paper seeks to assess, from a predominantly UK perspective, the potential benefits of enhanced Anglo-French defence cooperation, not only to the two countries concerned but also to Western Europe and the USA. The paper will mainly focus on defence cooperation and not the subordinate agreement regarding limited cooperation on nuclear weapons, which addressed cooperation on the safety and security of nuclear weapons, stockpile certification and countering nuclear and radiological terrorism but seemed to be driven by "acute financial pressures, symptomatic of severe structural deficiencies"

Generating a carrier strike capability: People are still central

The UK Royal Navy’s new Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carriers will give the Navy force projection at sea and ashore. But according to a National Audit Office report, there are limited suitably qualified and experienced personnel to operate the new carriers in time for development of the capability before 202

Implications for the U.S. of Anglo-French Defense Cooperation

The paper analyzes, from a predominantly UK perspective, the implications for the U.S. of the November 2, 2010, Anglo-French Defence Cooperation Treaty. The current pressures on British and French defence budgets were the primary driving force behind this cooperative effort. London and Paris have made steps toward improving joint efforts in a number of areas, with defence acquisition and industrial cooperation being prominent. In the UK, there appears to be strong political support at the highest levels, which has permeated to lower levels in the bureaucracy, while the UK defence industry appears to be cautiously optimistic about future business opportunities. The impact of enhanced Anglo-French cooperation on the U.S. would appear to be largely favourable for Washington. Rather than providing a basis for weakened UK attention to the U.S., as some fear, the efforts by London and Paris will potentially generate greater national military capability from scarce resources and could serve as a vehicle for broader European efforts to enhance their defence capabilities. While multinational European military development projects are viewed with scepticism in the UK, the Anglo-French arrangement could strengthen the prospects for bilateral projects in which other European states may elect to participate

Reliability Ensemble Averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

Multi-model averaging techniques provide opportunities to extract additional information from large ensembles of simulations. In particular, present-day model skill can be used to evaluate their potential performance in future climate simulations. Multi-model averaging methods have been used extensively in climate and hydrological sciences, but they have not been used to constrain projected plant productivity responses to climate change, which is a major uncertainty in Earth system modelling. Here, we use three global observationally orientated estimates of current net primary productivity (NPP) to perform a reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method using 30 global simulations of the 21st century change in NPP based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) <q>business as usual</q> emissions scenario. We find that the three REA methods support an increase in global NPP by the end of the 21st century (2095–2099) compared to 2001–2005, which is 2–3 % stronger than the ensemble ISIMIP mean value of 24.2 Pg C y⁻¹. Using REA also leads to a 45–68 % reduction in the global uncertainty of 21st century NPP projection, which strengthens confidence in the resilience of the CO₂ fertilization effect to climate change. This reduction in uncertainty is especially clear for boreal ecosystems although it may be an artefact due to the lack of representation of nutrient limitations on NPP in most models. Conversely, the large uncertainty that remains on the sign of the response of NPP in semi-arid regions points to the need for better observations and model development in these regions

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2.

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510-758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52-477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013) under Grant 238366. R.B., R.K., R.D., A.W., and P.D.F. were supported by the Joint Department of Energy and Climate Change/Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). A.I. and K.N. were supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-10) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), and we thank the climate modeling groups responsible for the GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M models for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. This work has been conducted under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). The ISI-MIP Fast Track project was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) with project funding Reference 01LS1201A.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from PNAS via http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.122247711

Weakened growth of cropland‐N2O emissions in China associated with nationwide policy interventions

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41671464; 7181101181), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFD0800501; 2018YFC0213304), 111 Project (B14001), the GCP-INI Global N2O Budget and the INMS Asia Demo Activities. The input of P.S. contributes to the UK-China Virtual Joint Centre on Nitrogen ìN-Circleî funded by the Newton Fund via UK BBSRC/NERC (BB/N013484/1). We acknowledged Eric Ceschia, Kristiina Regina, Dario Papale, and the NANORP for sharing a part of observation data.Peer reviewedPostprin

In vitro and in vivo antifungal profile of a novel and long acting inhaled azole, PC945, on Aspergillus fumigatus infection

The profile of PC945, a novel triazole antifungal, designed for administration via inhalation, hasbeen assessed in a range of in vitro and in vivo studies. PC945 was characterized as a potent, tight-binding inhibitor of Aspergillus fumigatus sterol 14α-demethylase (CYP51A and CYP51B)activity.In addition, when A. fumigatus hyphae or human bronchial cells were treated with PC945, and thenwashed, PC945 was found to be quickly absorbed into both target and non-target cells and toproduce persistent antifungal effects. In temporarily neutropenic immunocompromised miceinfected with A. fumigatus intranasally, 50% of the animals survived until day 7 when treatedintranasally with PC945 at 0.56 μg/mouse, while posaconazole showed similar effects (44%) at14 μg/mouse. This profile affirms that topical treatment with PC945 should provide potentantifungal activity in the lung

Baltic military cooperative projects: case study on effective military assistance programmes

From 1994, the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) undertook a number of cooperative regional military projects with the support of numerous Western countries. In particular, the Baltic Peacekeeping Battalion (BALTBAT) was an example of efficient Western defence cooperation to generate outcomes in order to achieve military and political goals. BALTBAT became the template for other Baltic programmes: the Baltic Naval Squadron (BALTRON), the Baltic Air Surveillance Network (BALTNET) and the Baltic Defence College (BALTDEFCOL). This thesis analysed the Baltic programmes, particularly BALTBAT, as a case study for identifying the elements of a model for effective military assistance projects. The focus was on the broad political decisions agreed upon by the donor and recipient states, such as the selection of development of peacekeeping capabilities, as the basis for military assistance, which provided the foundation for these initiatives. The value of the Baltic programmes as a case study and basis for identifying the elements of a model was enhanced by the fact that they succeeded at a delicate time in a sensitive region. The Baltic states had virtually no military forces upon regaining independence. Russia objected to Baltic state membership in NATO and was sensitive about a build-up of military capabilities close to Russian borders. In spite of these obstacles, the Baltic projects achieved outcomes which supported the military and political goals of the donor and recipient states. Analysis of the Baltic projects highlighted the importance of broad political decisions between donor and recipient states for military assistance initiatives. It also indicated the major factors (subsequently called Mechanisms) resulting from those decisions which were important to the outcomes from these programmes. These Mechanisms comprise the elements of a model which could be of value to academics and practitioners working in the area of military assistance